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Saudis warn France of an Al Qaeda attack. Are they right?

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That's led France to increase its warning level of a possible terrorist attack to "reinforced red," the second-highest alert on its scale.

How accurate is Saudi tip-off?

The Saudis have relentlessly pursued Al Qaeda affiliates in their country for over a decade now, since the organization is devoted to the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy. Those efforts have been quite successful – leaving most of its leaders bottled up in lawless corners of Yemen.

That has left the Saudis with an enormous amount of intelligence about the group – as well as an incentive to perhaps overemphasize threats to others, possibly to remind potential arms suppliers such as France that "our enemy is your enemy."

So while the Saudis may be correct in asserting that AQAP aspires to launching attacks in France, it's worth keeping in mind that the group hasn't yet successfully organized an attack anywhere in Europe (or anywhere in the West).

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