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Want proof that the recession ended last June?

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SoldAtTheTop / The Paper Economy

(Read caption) America is slowly but steadily buying its way out of the recession. Purchases of durable goods (blue line) are climbing mostly upwards (this month is very slightly below last month), and the high yellow line (comparisons to 12 months prior) shows the improvement since this time last year, when we'd barely begun to dig ourselves out of the recession, which officially ended when the blue curve showed itself on a steady upward climb.

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Today’s Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders report indicated that total new orders increased 6.3% from August to $199.2 billion while excluding transportation new orders decreased 0.8% to $144.384 billion.

Stripping durable goods orders of defense orders AND non-defense aircraft orders yields an effective measure of orders coming as a direct result of typical discretionary consumer durable goods spending on items such as motor vehicles, furniture, consumer electronic devices and home appliances.

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Looking at the latest release, discretionary durable goods orders continues to slow declining 0.76% since August but still remaining 8.56% above the level seen in September 2009.

Though the trends in discretionary new orders still remain positive on the year, the recent slowing trend warrants tracking this measure closely in coming months.

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