National debt ceiling 101: Is a crisis looming?

6. Could the tea party spirit spark an outright refusal to raise the debt limit?

Ed Reinke/AP/file
Republican Sen. Rand Paul (l.) enjoys a light moment with his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R) of Texas, during a campaign event in Erlanger, Ky., on Oct. 2, 2010. The Pauls have opposed raising the national debt limit.

Some deficit hawks are urging precisely that course – saying it will force Congress to rein in spending.

Michael Tanner of the libertarian Cato Institute recently argued that Republicans lose any hoped-for leverage if they concede up front – as some GOP leaders have – that they'll ultimately vote to raise the debt ceiling.

But most budget experts don't see "no" as a plausible final answer. The government is now spending basically $3 for every $2 it takes in, says Eugene Steuerle, a fiscal-policy expert at the Urban Institute. For all the concern voters express about the national debt, Republicans could face a political backlash if their attempts to rein in spending result in cuts that the public perceives as too painful.

For context, consider the recent Republican push to carve $100 billion out of federal spending this year. That's a big number, but at present it buys only about a one-month reprieve in federal borrowing.

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